Recent polling data indicates that former President Donald Trump is facing challenges in three pivotal battleground states, with Vice President Kamala Harris now leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This shift occurred after President Joe Biden exited the 2024 race and endorsed Harris as his successor. Previously, Trump was consistently ahead of Biden in polls, but the landscape has changed, putting Harris in a favorable position both nationally and in key states.
The Electoral College heavily influences presidential elections, meaning a candidate can win without the popular vote if they secure enough swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This election cycle, if Harris manages to win the Democratic strongholds that Biden captured in 2020 and secures victories in these swing states, she could clinch the necessary Electoral College votes.
A recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, noted for its polling accuracy, reveals Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points in all three states. In this survey, Harris garnered 50% support, while Trump received 46%.
The poll surveyed 619 voters in Michigan, 693 in Pennsylvania, and 661 in Wisconsin, with margins of error of plus or minus 4.8, 4.2, and 4.3 percentage points, respectively. Data collection took place from August 6 to 9.
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In a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence, Trump claimed he is “leading by a lot,” while criticizing Harris’s campaign, referring to her as “incompetent” and “not smart.” Meanwhile, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have labeled Trump and his partner, Ohio Senator JD Vance, as “weird.”
Current polling averages from 538 show Harris with a slight lead over Trump in these key states: 44.9% to 42.9% in Michigan, 45.5% to 44.6% in Pennsylvania, and 46.2% to 44.4% in Wisconsin.