Recent polling data from The Economist and YouGov indicates that former President Donald Trump has drawn even with Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in a month. The survey, conducted from September 8 to September 10, surveyed 1,626 U.S. adults and revealed both candidates tied at 45 percent—a notable shift from the previous month when Harris had consistently maintained the lead.
Interestingly, this latest poll is the first instance since July where Harris no longer holds an advantage over Trump. Back in early July, Trump had a slight lead over his Democratic challenger with 44 percent to Harris’s 41 percent, following her entry into the race.
It should be noted that the Economist/YouGov poll was completed before the highly publicized presidential debate that took place on Tuesday night. A subsequent survey by YouGov right after the debate suggested that a majority of viewers believed that Harris performed better during the exchange.
Prior polling conducted from September 1 to September 3 showed Harris ahead of Trump by 2 percentage points (47 percent to 45 percent), continuing a trend in which she had held a lead throughout much of August, even starting the month with a 45 to 43 advantage in a poll conducted from August 4 to August 6.
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Initially, Harris seemed to gain considerable momentum during the early stages of her campaign. However, leading up to the debate, analysts began to highlight a shift towards Trump. Over the weekend, a poll released by The New York Times and Siena College indicated Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point, although on average across national polls, she still retained a narrow 2-point edge at that time.
Election forecasts compiled by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight have also shown favorable trends for Trump. As of Monday, he was estimated to have a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, marking his highest likelihood since July, while Harris was pegged at 39.7 percent.
Despite these changes, early polling suggests that the presidential race is poised to be extremely competitive in November. Experts opine that Harris may receive a polling boost following her commendable performance in the debate.
As political analyst Agranoff noted, “For deeply entrenched voters, they may reinforce existing beliefs rather than shift opinions. In a race as polarized as this one, even a perceived loss for Trump might not move the needle significantly, as many voters have already made up their minds.”