According to a recent Fox News poll, Donald Trump has gained an edge over Kamala Harris, shifting the presidential race dynamics.
The poll, conducted from October 11 to 14 with responses from 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, indicates Trump leads Harris by 2 points, at 50% to her 48%. This contrasts with a month ago when Harris held a 2-point advantage.
Despite Trump’s improved standing, his lead remains within the margin of error of +/- 3 points. Additionally, Harris is still ahead by 6 points among voters in seven key battleground states.
This latest data reflects some of Trump’s strongest numbers in a Fox poll since he became the Republican nominee. Previous surveys indicated a slimmer lead of just 1 point for him in August.
Trump’s rise in the polls is attributed mainly to increasing support from white voters, who back him now by 10 points—an improvement from 4 points last month and 6 points in August. Moreover, he’s garnered significant backing among older voters (49%) and college-educated voters (48%). In contrast, Harris is seeing a decline in support among Black voters (67%), college graduates (49%), older voters (47%), and white voters with college degrees (46%).
Democratic pollster Chris Anderson noted the subtle but possibly significant movement towards Trump, emphasizing that the race remains very close, heavily influenced by voter turnout rather than persuasion. “The outcome will largely depend on which camp mobilizes their voters more effectively,” he said.
Both Trump and Harris have strong motivation among their supporters, with two-thirds of each group stating they are “extremely” eager to vote. However, Trump’s supporters are more likely to be voting for him rather than against Harris; 80% are in Trump’s camp for him, compared to 67% of Harris’s supporters voting for her and a third doing so against Trump.
Trump has noted an overall favorable trend in polling recently. RealClearPolitics’ tracker showed Michigan shifting to Trump for the first time since late July, with Nevada and Pennsylvania also leaning Republican. Furthermore, pollster Nate Silver mentioned last week that 19 states are now favoring the former president.
Polls remain tightly contested, particularly in swing states, where candidates are often separated by just 1 or 2 points. Silver indicated that both Trump and Harris now have nearly equal chances heading into November, with Harris at 50.1% and Trump at 49.7%.
Harris’s winning odds have dipped by approximately 6 points since late September, coinciding with Trump’s gains across 19 states, per Silver’s forecast. “It’s basically even now,” Silver observed on his site, highlighting the tightening race.