In a recent AtlasIntel poll, Donald Trump is currently leading Kamala Harris in five out of seven crucial swing states that could decide the next election.
The survey indicates Trump holds a significant edge in Michigan (50.6% to 47.2%) and Pennsylvania (51% to 48.1%). He also has a slim lead in battleground states like Arizona (49.8% to 48.6), Georgia (49.6% to 49%), and Wisconsin (49.7% to 48.2). Meanwhile, Harris is ahead in North Carolina (50.5% to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5% to 47.7).
Notably, AtlasIntel was recognized as the most accurate polling organization during the 2020 presidential election by 538. Should Trump maintain his current leads in these five states, he would secure 290 Electoral College votes, while Harris would sit at 248.
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The polling took place from September 20-25, with a margin of error ranging from 2 to 3 percentage points.
Trump’s potential wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—key parts of the “blue wall”—are critical for Harris. If she captures those three states, she can reach the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes, assuming other results hold steady.
If Trump manages to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he could claim victory as well. He also has a chance if he can grab a win in either Michigan or Wisconsin along with the Sun Belt states, which include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Interestingly, Harris leads in North Carolina, which has been influenced by the controversies surrounding Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. His past remarks, including a controversial self-description as a “Black Nazi,” have raised concerns about the impact on Trump’s campaign in the state.
Polling in these swing states included responses from 946 likely voters in Arizona, 1,200 in Georgia, 918 in Michigan, 1,173 in North Carolina, 1,775 in Pennsylvania, and 1,077 in Wisconsin, each with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, except for Pennsylvania, which is 2 points.