Democrats in Maryland are facing a concerning challenge for a critical Senate seat, as a recent poll indicates a tie between Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. This comes despite the popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.
Winning Maryland is essential for Democrats aiming to maintain Senate control, especially given the favorable landscape for Republicans heading into the 2024 elections.
An AARP poll released Tuesday shows both candidates with 46 percent support among likely voters, based on 1,258 participants surveyed between August 14-20, with a 4 percent margin of error. Notably, the same poll reveals Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a substantial 64 percent to 32 percent.
Hogan, who served as Maryland’s governor from 2015 to 2023, left office with a striking 77 percent approval rating, attributed to his “common sense solutions” and consistent tax cuts. His administration transformed the state’s economy, moving it from 49th to 6th in national rankings, while also significantly investing in healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
Maryland has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since Bill Clinton’s win in 1992, including Biden’s victory in 2020 where he garnered 65 percent of the vote.
The AARP poll indicates Hogan’s strength among older voters, holding a 13-point lead in the 50-64 age group, and a 10-point advantage amongst all men and voters aged 18-34. He is preferred by independents by a striking 23-point margin and boasts a 57-point lead among swing voters over 50.
Alsobrooks does hold a notable advantage among Black voters over 50, leading by 52 percent, and also has an 8-point edge among all women and voters aged 65 and over, while voters aged 35-49 favor her by 13 points.
Kamala Harris has gained significant momentum since announcing her presidential run after President Biden endorsed her in late July, following intense pressure during a lackluster debate performance against Trump.
Harris has recently been polling well against Trump in battleground states and appears to have benefitted from the Democratic National Convention, where she formally accepted her nomination.
While specific polling for Maryland’s Senate race has been sparse, previous polls have shown Alsobrooks leading. A Public Policy Polling survey from June showed her with an 11-point advantage over Hogan, and prior surveys indicated leads of 9 and 10 points.
As Democrats hold a narrow grip on the Senate, there is widespread speculation that Republicans may gain a seat in West Virginia due to independent Senator Joe Manchin, who collaborates with the Democrats, not seeking reelection.