In an unexpected twist for Nevada’s presidential election, nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans have cast their votes compared to registered Democrats, as revealed by recent data. Michael Pruser, a data analyst at Decision Desk, highlighted these findings on X, indicating that as of Wednesday evening, a total of 159,388 Republicans had voted, surpassing the 140,878 Democrats and 97,529 voters with other or no party affiliations.
This early voting trend is raising alarms for Democrats, who typically excel with early and mail-in ballots. Current analyses by election forecasting site FiveThirtyEight show a tightly contested race, giving Trump a slight edge at 51 percent over Harris at 49 percent.
Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, described this voting pattern as “unprecedented” for this phase of the election cycle. He pointed out that it defies historical trends, where Democrats usually build a significant lead in Las Vegas’s Clark County. “Instead, we’re witnessing a substantial ballot lead for the GOP, fueled by strong rural turnout,” he said.
Ralston also noted that although Democrats may hope to win over the 97,529 voters who are not aligned with major parties, their influence remains uncertain. Even if Harris leads this demographic by a compelling margin, it may still not suffice to outnumber Republican votes. Ralston reasoned, “If Trump retains his base, he could maintain a lead of around 6,000 votes—albeit a slim one.”
Further analysis from the University of Florida as of October 22 showed that 131,516 Republicans had voted compared to 119,798 Democrats, with a significant early voting advantage of 73,858 for Republicans over 38,576 Democrats. However, this was somewhat mitigated by Democrats leading in mail-in ballots.
On a more positive note for Harris, a new study from election analytics site 383Canada indicates she could secure an average of 286 Electoral College votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win. The analysis suggests she is likely to dominate in battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, while Trump is favored in Nevada and Arizona.
During a recent CNN town hall, Harris faced scrutiny from host Anderson Cooper regarding the Biden administration’s immigration policies and her support for a border bill including $650 million for wall construction.