Myanmar’s military regime is ramping up airstrikes as it grapples with multiple rebellions from ethnic armies and forces formed in response to the 2021 coup. According to monitoring groups, this intensified offensive coincides with China’s stronger backing of the junta, including the provision of new attack aircraft and a push for armed groups to halt their advances.
The junta has recently launched a campaign named Operation Yan Naing Min following significant losses over the past year. Reports indicate that at least 12 people were killed in these airstrikes, with concerns raised about the disregard for civilian safety.
Conversations among pro-junta factions have been alarming, with phrases like “kill everybody” and “just keep the land” surfacing, highlighting the regime’s brutal intent. Despite attempts to reach out, Myanmar’s government did not respond to inquiries.
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In August, opposition groups achieved notable victories, including seizing the regional North East Command near the Chinese border. This shift has been interpreted as a significant setback for the junta, prompting China to re-engage with Myanmar’s military leadership more aggressively than before.
China’s Strategic Shift
China’s approach has dramatically shifted from supporting resistance forces to pushing them to cease their activities and sever ties with the National Unity Government. This pivot has included increased military support for the junta while reducing pressure to control crime in border areas.
The support includes new military hardware, such as six FTC-2000G jets capable of carrying out devastating airstrikes. Reports also indicate that China is cutting off supplies to resistance forces along the border, showcasing a significant change in its strategy.
Myanmar Witness/Maptiler
China’s interests in Myanmar extend beyond mere border security; it seeks access to the Indian Ocean for strategic projects, including oil pipelines. Recent meetings between Myanmar’s junta leader and the Chinese ambassador emphasized an increase in defense cooperation.
However, the junta’s plans for elections are facing resistance from various armed groups, which emerged in response to the military’s takeover post the 2020 elections. Increased Chinese support may disrupt alliances within opposition factions, as Beijing’s involvement could strengthen the junta’s crackdown on pro-democracy movements.
Despite the apparent backing from China, the junta continues to face setbacks in several regions. Analysts warn that while the relationship between China and Myanmar’s military may currently seem stable, historical fluctuations in China’s policy raise concerns. Should the junta fail to maintain control, China’s strategy could evolve yet again.