Kursk Map Reveals Russia’s Recovery of Nearly 25% of Lost Territory

Recent reports indicate that Russian troops have regained control of some areas in Ukraine’s Kursk region. This development follows Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory a couple of months ago.

As of Monday, the Russian counteroffensive has continued for the fifth consecutive day, reclaiming an estimated 46 square miles, according to the Ukrainian open-source intelligence channel, DeepState.

There are mixed reports regarding Russian successes, with Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces, claiming that half of the Ukrainian-occupied land in Kursk has been retaken. However, DeepState suggests that Ukraine has lost about 25% of the territory it had captured, which peaked at around 350 square miles — lower than the 500 square miles initially claimed by Kyiv.

The Russian-language Astra Telegram channel reported that Russian forces have taken control of Lyubimovka and Tolstoy Lug, areas that cut off Ukrainian troops. Additionally, they mentioned significant losses for a Kyiv garrison in Olgovka.

Pro-Russian military bloggers also reported gains around Cherkasskaya Konopelka, close to Sudzha, the administrative center currently held by Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provided a map depicting these claimed advances but noted a lack of independent verification, highlighting only a Russian presence about five miles from Sudzha.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported last week that Russia has moved 50,000 troops to the area, although he believes this has weakened their overall battlefield position.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed on Telegram that despite Russian assaults, his forces are resilient and continue to defend effectively.

Muddy Challenges

Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin commented on the onset of muddy season, suggesting it favors Russian tracked vehicles over Ukrainian wheeled ones, though it poses challenges for both sides. The ISW previously linked the muddy conditions to Russia’s intensified counterattacks in Kursk.

Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Bunyatov from the Aidar battalion noted that adverse weather is hampering drone operations and military equipment effectiveness. “In the rain, our drones fail to operate well,” he stated, emphasizing that artillery cannot be substituted for drones nor can mining.