Recently, the Finnish Ministry of Defense launched an investigation into an alleged violation of their airspace by a Russian aircraft on Monday. Reportedly, the incursion occurred over Finland‘s Gulf of Finland, with the Moscow-based plane intruding into Finnish territory for a brief two-minute period, covering 1.6 miles. This incident marks the first formal complaint filed by Finland against Russia since joining NATO earlier this year.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen expressed grave concern, stating, “We take the suspected territorial violation seriously, and the investigation has begun immediately.”
As per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there hasn’t been a response from Moscow yet. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that missile carriers Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 were seen flying over neutral waters in the Baltic Sea, Barents, and Norwegian Seas.
In its Ukraine war assessment on Monday, the American think-tank ISW suggested that this incident might be part of the Kremlin’s strategy to undermine Finnish sovereignty. ISW also referenced a previous report from May 22, where the Russian Ministry of Defense proposed reassessing maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Finland, citing outdated maps. Western officials have interpreted this move as a potential revision of established maritime zones in the Baltic Sea.
According to Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia’s actions were deemed deliberate provocations aimed at intimidating neighboring countries. ISW highlighted concerns expressed by Swedish commander-in-chief Mikael Byden about Russia’s ambitions to exert influence in the Baltic Sea region.
Last month, the Estonian Police and Border Guard reported an incident where Russian law enforcement dismantled part of a floating barrier used by Estonia to demarcate its maritime border along the Narva River, established in 2022. ISW indicated that these actions were potentially intended to provoke tensions along the international borders in the NATO region to assess NATO’s responses to future challenges.