On August 10, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin revealed that President Lukashenko had ordered troop deployments to the Gomel and Mazyr regions in response to developments in Ukraine and recent incursions from Russia’s Kursk oblast. Social media is buzzing with images showcasing Belarusian military vehicles heading towards the border.
Franak Viačorka, a senior adviser to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, expressed concerns over Lukashenko’s actions, labeling them a “dangerous game.” Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in the widely disputed 2020 presidential election, remains a prominent voice against his regime.
Since the Soviet Union’s fall, Lukashenko has relied heavily on Putin’s backing to maintain his grip on power. Although Belarus has not fully committed to Russia’s military offensive, it has facilitated attacks from its territory.
Russian nuclear weapons are currently stationed in Belarus, and earlier this year, economic ties between the two nations in the “Union State” were strengthened. Amidst rising military activity near its borders, Ukraine has cautioned Belarus against making “tragic mistakes” and has promised to respond if its territory is violated.
Lukashenko’s claim on August 18 that “one-third of the army” had been dispatched to the southern border raised eyebrows, especially since mechanized units were only deployed there for the first time since 2022.
Experts suggest that while the situation continues to evolve, the troops do not currently pose a direct threat to Ukraine and are more for show than for any actual military intent. Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting emphasized that significant troop mobilization would be necessary for a successful offensive.
Public sentiment in Belarus indicates a strong opposition to deeper involvement in the conflict. Additionally, pro-Ukrainian groups have started to emerge within the country, conducting sabotage operations aimed at resisting both Putin’s influence and Lukashenko’s regime.
Viačorka remarked, “It’s all smoke and mirrors,” pointing out that Lukashenko’s troop movements are a desperate attempt to appease Putin and showcase his role as a defender of Russia’s interests. “He’s trying to save his own skin,” Viačorka stated. “Having seen Ukraine push back into Russian territory, he fears a similar fate could befall Belarus.”
Ultimately, he added, “If it comes to that, nobody in Belarus is going to lift a finger to save him—not his own people, and certainly not Russia.”