Recent reports from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russian forces are making significant moves toward Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The latest ISW map outlines the evolving front line, showing key locations that have seen activity.
According to the Ukrainian open-source group Deep State, the town of Prechystivka has fallen under Russian control. Meanwhile, the Telegram channel Katyonik suggests this advance is potentially aimed at encircling Vuhledar.
As of Tuesday, the ISW’s updated map reflects Russian advances towards Halytsynivka and Nevelske, raising concerns for Ukrainian troops stationed west of Nevelske. The Conflict Intelligence Team warns that these forces might soon be cut off and advises a strategic withdrawal.
Challenges are mounting for Ukrainian units in the Pokrovsk area, with reports of personnel shortages leaving troops unable to hold their positions effectively. According to Lange, a non-resident senior fellow at CEPA, many units are operating at only 10 to 30 percent strength.
Looking ahead, Ukraine is optimistic that recent changes to its draft laws, enacted in April, will refresh its manpower pool. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies claims that Russian forces currently enjoy a four-to-one advantage in personnel and supplies, projecting that at their current pace, Russian troops could reach Pokrovsk’s outskirts by mid-September, albeit with significant losses.
The shift in Russian strategy follows Ukraine’s incursions into Russia’s Kursk region, prompting public scrutiny in Ukraine about the dual-front approach. President Volodymyr Zelensky affirmed to NBC News that Ukraine aims to securely hold onto the 500 square miles it has captured, despite growing concerns about the situation in Pokrovsk.
“Many people are questioning our actions in Kursk in light of the challenges near Pokrovsk,” Lange noted. However, he emphasized that the operations in Donetsk are somewhat disconnected from those in Kursk, as they involve different units with distinct missions.