NATO nations are currently strategizing a response to sabotage attacks that are believed to be orchestrated by Russia. This indicates that Vladimir Putin‘s invasion in Ukraine is influencing the alliance through what is termed “hybrid war,” despite efforts to prevent escalation.
Incidents such as arson, railway derailments, and GPS jamming have been occurring within or near NATO territories, with these actions frequently linked to Russian GRU intelligence operations. The enlargement of NATO and its support for Kyiv against Russian aggression have irked Moscow, leading to these disruptive acts.
Despite these challenges, NATO member states have rejected a proposal to establish a NATO Centre for Democratic Resilience, indicating a lack of readiness to counter Moscow’s attempts to sow discord within the alliance.
Moscow has been waging a political war against the West for nearly two decades through tactics such as political intimidation, threats, misinformation, espionage, and cyberattacks. However, NATO members have been slow to address these unconventional operations, often focusing on the conventional threat posed by Russia.
The Soviet Playbook
Recent events, such as repeated rail derailments in Sweden and GPS jamming affecting flights to Estonia, illustrate the multifaceted nature of Russia’s efforts to destabilize NATO countries. Incidents like the fires in Hamburg, Copenhagen, and Warsaw further complicate NATO’s security landscape, posing challenges due to their disruptive nature.
While NATO has refrained from direct retaliation against Russia for these provocations, the use of proxy actors complicates attribution and response efforts. The breadth of potential targets for such attacks, including critical infrastructures like rail networks and pipelines, makes it challenging to defend against these threats effectively.
What is NATO Capable of?
Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, highlighted the importance of countering hybrid attacks during a recent NATO meeting in Prague. While NATO aims to respond collectively and individually to such threats, specific strategies are yet to be disclosed.
Potential measures to address these hybrid threats may include restricting the movements of Russian diplomats, increasing surveillance on critical infrastructure, and enhancing cyber-defense capabilities. Implementing sanctions, expulsions, and visa restrictions could also serve as deterrents against further disruptive acts.
As NATO works on bolstering its defenses and response mechanisms, the evolving nature of Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics underscores the need for a proactive and adaptable approach to safeguarding the alliance’s security and integrity.