Recently, Ukrainian forces have made significant strides in the Kursk region, following what appeared to be Russian counterattacks against Ukraine’s advances into their territory. Reports indicate that, after launching a surprise offensive on August 6, Ukraine managed to secure approximately 500 square miles in this less-defended area.
This rapid progress has, however, raised alarms regarding military operations in the Donetsk oblast, where Russian troops have been pushing toward the important logistics hub of Pokrovsk.
Although Russia’s response has been slow, they have been targeting Ukraine’s left flank, reportedly reclaiming some villages. Information on the ground remains sparse, mostly coming from military bloggers and Ukrainian reports.
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Institute for the Study of War
Open-source intelligence account, Intelschizo, reported that in the past week, Russian forces gained eight square miles while losing 73 square miles toward Glushkovo.
Meanwhile, a pro-Ukrainian account, (((Tendar))), highlighted that Russian Telegram channels claimed Kyiv’s troops had taken the village of Veseloe, although they noted a lack of evidence supporting claims of Russian gains in Kursk.
According to (((Tendar))), “This brings Ukrainian forces closer to Glushkovo and risks splitting the Russian pocket south of the Seym River.” They warned that this could disrupt Russia’s ongoing counteroffensive efforts, which have been somewhat unclear.
Pro-Ukrainian sources suggest that Ukraine’s strategy might be to force Russia to divert resources to Kursk, exposing their artillery positions. “Ukrainians now understand the Russian tactical intents, allowing them to respond more effectively,” (((Tendar))) stated.
On the flip side, pro-Russian reports say Ukrainian attacks are ongoing in areas like Lyubimovka. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russian forces have made slight advances in the area, as shown by geolocated footage.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently mentioned that around 35,000 Russian troops are in Kursk, with the potential for that number to double, but reaffirmed the resilience of Ukrainian forces.
According to U.S. assessments, Russia may need up to 50,000 troops (20 brigades) to effectively push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk, but Army Major Gen. Pat Ryder remarked that Russia’s current actions in the region have been relatively “marginal.”