Recent insights from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Ukraine’s recent actions in the Kursk region are complicating Russia’s ambitions to widen its front in northeastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Friday that since launching its operation on August 6, Ukraine has effectively prevented Russia from establishing buffer zones—particularly in the Sumy Oblast, which shares a border with Kursk.
Zelensky highlighted that Moscow intended to launch significant offensives aimed at capturing regional hubs, notably the regional capitals of Sumy and Kharkiv, thus expanding the battlefield.
He further noted that Ukraine’s advancements have “slowed” Russian operations in Donetsk Oblast and diminished Moscow’s artillery ammunition superiority in the Pokrovsk area.
According to the ISW, the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has disrupted Russian offensive strategies in the border region, thwarting plans for a broader combat front in northeastern Ukraine.
Ukraine claims to have gained control of approximately 500 square miles due to this unexpected incursion. While Russia has mounted counterattacks, the ISW suggests that Moscow may need to shift additional forces from other areas to effectively respond in Kursk Oblast.
Russian troops have initiated counteroffensive maneuvers targeting Ukraine’s positions in Kursk, with reports from multiple sources indicating slight territorial recoveries. However, the ISW noted that these Russian advances were minor.
Furthermore, the ISW’s updated map reflects geolocated footage showing Russian control in certain locations but also acknowledges ongoing Ukrainian successes elsewhere.
On the ground, Russian military movements have been confirmed, with reports of around 35,000 troops stationed in the Kursk area. Despite this, the ISW warns that Moscow will likely need to bolster its manpower and equipment in the region, especially when many deployed units may lack combat experience.
In a related development, British defense officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian logistics in Kursk, evidenced by targeted strikes that have taken out critical infrastructure like bridges over the Seym River.